Trotter wrote:
Possibly for the Super Deluxe, not sure about the rest

I think the SD Sil. will stay rather expensive, but I doubt anyone is going to be paying $7,500 for a copy (not that anyone necessarily ever did - but I think that was what I saw the last one advertised for).


A reminder that asking prices clearly have no bearing in selling prices (a set of HoME that don't look that exceptional to me, except for the price):
http://www.tolkienlibrary.com/tolkien-book-store/ARH0004.htm

(I like to use prices where I know for sure what they should be to help me determine how exaggerated other prices might be from the same source for things I have less certainty on. I don't mean to give any offence to any specific sellers here, but I think the Tolkien "popularity bubble" that followed the movies allowed things to get more than a little bit silly, and what seemed acceptable three or four years ago now looks absurd)

I tend to agree that collecting Tolkien has significant headwinds unless the estate does something to open up the marketing and merchandising, which quite frankly is never going to happen. And that might be a good thing. Among the many things I collect, vintage Star Wars toys is one of them. That was a pretty stale hobby after the hype of the disappointing prequels settled down. Then Lucasfilm sold the rights to Disney and almost overnight things turned around. Prices spiked significantly and the hobby is all abuzz over whether this is a pricing bubble. To give an idea, I sold a chunk of my collection to buy my first house. It was 16k for about 15 pieces going back to around 2002. The value of those same pieces today is well over the 100k mark. Regrets...

But for Tolkien there isn't really anything conceivable on the horizon to spur popularity. And we should consider ourselves lucky if Peter Jackson never gets to remake another movie. The only thing I could even conceive of happening is an LOTR trilogy reboot.

I think a reboot (of one or both) is inevitable, probably within five years or so (at least the announcement/prep work - who knows when it would be released). Unless the whole "reboot for profit" theme dies out in Hollywood... unlikely.

Urulöké wrote:
I think a reboot (of one or both) is inevitable, probably within five years or so (at least the announcement/prep work - who knows when it would be released). Unless the whole "reboot for profit" theme dies out in Hollywood... unlikely.

Whilst an LOTR reboot/remake at some point is inevitable, I don't see anything happening in those kind of timescales, especially as PJ made such an effort to re-use characters/actors in The Hobbit. The problem is that LOTR wasn't terrible, and it is going to be hard and hugely expensive to remake to a standard that guarantees success. Comic book reboots are easier as one can tell any story one likes, so long as their is a slightly bulkier rubber suit and a slightly darker tone from one movie to the next. There isn't this freedom with LOTR as the story is well-defined and not endless. I think The Hobbit needs to settle for quite a while before the whole thing can be revisited with a new cast and style. Perhaps 10 - 15 years, and the studio might have another stab at it.

Personally, I think a lack of a much wider interest in collecting Tolkien books is a good thing. It becomes something collectors can enjoy again at an affordable price. I don't imagine any of the genuine collectors (as opposed to dealers and speculators) that are regulars here really ever plan on selling their collections, so there is no real downside to a price correction (other than to their estates, I guess). I'm already running on the assumption that anything with "deluxe" in the title (other than the 1982 Sil -- which is a genuine rarity and is beyond my reach!) is probably worth zero in the long run. I don't have too many duplicates, so I'm not losing sleep over that fact!

I do wish the buying market was wider. We have two sources and eBay. No one seems in a rush to buy or sell really, at least that is my impression after entering this hobby 14 months ago.

Tapuvae wrote:
I do wish the buying market was wider. We have two sources and eBay. No one seems in a rush to buy or sell really, at least that is my impression after entering this hobby 14 months ago.

I don't know about only two sources. Abebooks has a lot of sellers, plus eBay and some other regional auction sites.

Prices seem to have dropped, but I'd agree that supply is also low. It is an odd market, but probably what is to be expected. There are very few people with any urgency to buy (so prices have correspondingly come off the boil), but the mass of people who purchased post-movies haven't reached the point they particularly need/want to sell, either. A lot of books may gather dust for a while before they come back on the market. It is no drama for anyone that is into the collecting game for the long haul :)

I am definitely seeing copies re-emerge from the collections of speculators who bought before/during the movie hype. It is a trickle right now, and likely to remain so for a while as the asking prices are not being met (by any stretch).

[Note to self - the time to sell is in the buildup to the movie, not after. ]

This pretty much sums up why I hate buying books online

http://i67.tinypic.com/2rpfz85.jpg

Wow Stu, that really is a "Wonder"ful photo. Maybe if I knew the guy... nah.