@Stu wrote:
Hmmm, could be... I think what happens is that you get a very high priced copy on eBay (in this case, Dogfark's nice, but very overpriced jacketed copy) and then people who have never done any research or watched real selling prices think anything else is a steal. Obviously if they had better informed themselves - which takes time - they would know the typical selling costs, rather than relying on asking prices and outlier sales.

To be honest, as a newbie, it's really confusing and difficult to follow. Look at this copy of the same year, price asked 3000 euros (and I don't mention its state!) :

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The Hobbit first edition, fourth & last impression 1946

293268832912

Seller: devlish0

(316)

Ended Apr 30, 2023

This item ended more than 90 days ago

So even with the counsels here (and thank you for sharing the good auctions), there are reasons to be lost.
Plus, I have the impression that some auctions can't be find by everybody in the world. I look from time to time on ebay US/UK/FR, but sometimes, I missed certain auctions shared here (in this case, probably because of the spelling error).

I'm bidding of this one, for maybe it's the only mean for me to acquire a copy of a second edition for a not too high price and with a acceptable state.

@Druss wrote:


I'm bidding of this one, for maybe it's the only mean for me to acquire a copy of a second edition for a not too high price and with a acceptable state.

Good luck - just don't get carried away. I've seen quite a few decent jacket-less 1946 copies sell over the last 6 or 7 years (in the UK and in the US primarily). Most of them actually have sold for pretty reasonable prices (sub USD 500). The ones we tend to focus on are the ones with silly asking prices. I actually thought the copy currently being sold by Dogfark was a decent buy at the £1,900 asking price of the previous seller (albeit above my price ceiling), but the market completely ignored it on and off for a couple of years, so...

Everyone misses some auctions of course, but I know I've missed out on some, for example, during a week of being able to check eBay frequently and then I'll see a sold price on this site. I don't understand how it happens, but it does. I don't know if your experiences Stu always give you a good sense of market value. Finding that £500 Hobbit was just a nice job on your part, don't you think? I can't explain why it didn't get more bidders, but I know that I would absolutely have placed a bid if I had seen it.

@Berelach wrote:
Everyone misses some auctions of course, but I know I've missed out on some, for example, during a week of being able to check eBay frequently and then I'll see a sold price on this site. I don't understand how it happens, but it does. I don't know if your experiences Stu always give you a good sense of market value. Finding that £500 Hobbit was just a nice job on your part, don't you think? I can't explain why it didn't get more bidders, but I know that I would absolutely have placed a bid if I had seen it.

I don't think you can get a good sense of market value from one sale, absolutely. But I have seen a LOT of Hobbits get sold over the last few years, many of which I forgot about, missed, already had that year, etc. I think the Hobbit 46 I purchased was a bit on the lower side (maybe it would be worth £700 to a seller on a better day), but I don't think it is a crazy outlier (like that 1942 Children's Hobbit that you got as a BIN -- that was an absolute outlier).

Dogfark of all sellers sold a jacketed 1946 three or four years ago that varied in asking price from £400 to £600 or £700. I think it actually sold at about £550ish. I actually considered it at lowest price. The book had quite a bit of lean, and there was a chunk out of the jacket, but it wasn't a bad copy and the price was more or less in line with what I paid.

Well, I missed this auction too, in the last seconds It sells at 381 £, btw.

@Druss wrote:
Well, I missed this auction too, in the last seconds It sells at 381 £, btw.

Don't worry, more of them will turn up. If I see one, I'll let you know directly.

By the way, my personal recommendation would be to not get involved in bidding at all before the end of the auction. Use a bid-sniping service like Auctionsniper and decide what the maximum you are willing to pay. Enter that number into the sniper and forget about it. I usually get it to snipe 5s before auction close. I've had a couple where the eBay API randomly rejects the snipe (and the error is an odd one that no one really knows why it sometimes happens). Sniping means that noone else had time to talk themselves into increasing their bid and upping the price. It is a much more honest way of buying and selling and it means you never spend more than you think the item is worth + you win more often. NEVER enter your maximum bid direct into eBay as that makes you vulnerable to shill bidding.

I agree with Stu.

I stopped using auctionsniper a while back and have been doing it manually for a while, and will probably write myself a sniper.

Is there enough interest for a sniping service to be offered here? You would have to allow the server to store your eBay bidding credentials (which you also have to do with other sniping services).

@Urulókë wrote:
I agree with Stu.

I stopped using auctionsniper a while back and have been doing it manually for a while, and will probably write myself a sniper.

Is there enough interest for a sniping service to be offered here? You would have to allow the server to store your eBay bidding credentials (which you also have to do with other sniping services).

If it was reliable, I'd rather pay you than auctiva. I have also thought about writing one for personal use and hosting it up on AWS. But ideas > available time...

One here written in scala (personally never used scala) https://github.com/ruippeixotog/ebay-snipe-server

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J R R Tolkien | The Hobbit | Pleasure In Reading | 1968

193571140293

Seller: kung_fu_zombie

(112)

Ended Jul 20, 2020

This item ended more than 90 days ago

(Note - Claims the 1st is rarer than the 2nd, which I don't believe we have any evidence for -- they seem to come up at around the same frequency)

I haven't really been following how the latest deluxe incarnations have been altered as they've been reprinted, beyond the comments of being printed in China etc. I bought all of them as they came out.

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THE LORD OF THE RINGS, J.R.R. TOLKIEN 2013 HarperCollins Deluxe Limited Edition

373120802750

Seller: toy-collectables

(342)

Ended Aug 21, 2020

This item ended more than 90 days ago

So, what is now going on with the old 50th 2004 edition? Is this not the revised 50th text? Has this gone in to 10 impressions since 2013, or did they continue on impression numbering from 2004? When was the spine "50th" bit dropped? etc etc